Playing the numbers game

General Election campaigns in Thailand are always far more entertaining than in the UK.  One of the reasons is that, in the Thai system, each political party is given a number which goes on the ballot paper.  Given that 40 parties applied for a number this year, you can imagine the drama involved when the draw happens.  Held last week in a large hall in Bangkok, the event was like a National Lottery draw, complete with number balls in a glass container on the stage.  Cheered on by noisy groups of supporters, the party leaders arrived for the draw.

There were gasps of disbelief around the hall as Phuea Thai, the leading opposition party supported by the red shirt movement, drew number 1.  Phuea Thai leader Yingluck, the younger sister of ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was quick to exploit the advantages of drawing such an auspicious number!

In such a crowded field, it is clearly preferable to draw a low number, or at least one widely recognised to be 'lucky', such as number 8.  After the draw, each party leader tried to come up with reasons why they were in fact delighted to have drawn their number.  I wonder how many potential answers each leader had prepared in advance!

The Democratic Party, who led the previous coalition government, drew number 10.  On the Thai equivalent of Newsnight that evening, we heard heavyweight political commentators speculate on how this number would play with the public.  Well, one said, Michael Owen wore number 10.  And it's popular with the kids - the Ben-10 cartoon is hugely popular.  Another commentator opined that the most important thing is to draw a number that the politicians can show with the fingers on two hands on the campaign trail.  Good job they didn't draw 11 then!

In amongst all the amusement, however, are some very serious problems.  The red-shirt movement is backing the Phuea Thai party - but will they will accept election defeat peacefully?  The red shirts enjoy considerable support in our area - our local shops (right) have started displaying little red flags.  And if the Phuea Thai party wins, and key red-shirt leaders become MPs and government ministers, will the army accept that result? 

Fresh in everyone's minds is last year's red-shirt street protest in Bangkok.  The protest lasted for 2 months, in defiance of the martial law imposed by the government, and was finally dispersed forcibly by the army.  In total, more than 90 people died during the protests.

Somewhat confusing, the yellow shirt movement, whose official name is 'The People's Alliance for Democracy', are urging people to vote for 'None of the Above'.  So little yellow 'Vote No' stickers are appearing around town.  The yellow shirts have vowed to take to the streets again should the red-shirt backed Phuea Thai party take part in the new government.  They have some form in this area - the yellow shirts took over Bangkok's main airport in November 2008, forcing its closure for 8 days.

There are now 34 days to go until the election on July 3rd.  Please pray for Thailand during this uncertain time.